Wow...I don't think I've ever pegged a Vikings matchup as exactly as what I did before last Sunday's MN-TB contest. Unfortunately, my incredibly accurate prediction came in a losing effort.
Essentially, in my preview of this matchup, I said that the Buccaneers would dominate most aspects of the game, yet win by a close margin (20-14 was my exact prediction, I believe). Well, let's check the stat sheet...
First Downs: TB-21, MN-14
Passing Yards: TB-255, MN-111
Rushing Yards: TB-108, MN-99
Turnovers: TB-1, MN-2
Time Of Possession: TB-33:49, MN-26:11
In essence, Tampa Bay beat the Vikings in every aspect of the game of football on Sunday, but won the game by a narrow score of 19-13. To me, the biggest reason for TB's success (and MN's ultimate failure) can be found by examining both quarterbacks.
Let's start with Jeff Garcia...we all know that, in order for the Vikings to win most games, they must have a dominating performance from the defensive line, as the secondary plays a great deal of zone coverage and thus yields many wide-open receivers if the opposing QB has enough time to release the ball. The Vikings' D-line actually played extremely well on Sunday, but could not accomplish the vital task of their mission...sending Garcia to the turf. Although Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, and Ray Edwards (among others) had Garcia running for his life most of the afternoon, Garcia (with his nimble feet and smooth mobility) was ALWAYS able to buy enough time to find the open receiver downfield. Besides the infamous Michael Vick OT touchdown scamper of '02, I don't think I have seen a QB dodge and dart away from pressure as well as Garcia did. Pretty impressive for an old fogey like him.
Then, on our side, we have Gus Frerotte...whereas the Vikes usually bring pressure from the D-line, Tampa favors their exotic blitz packages, where linebackers, cornerbacks, and even safeties are often seen dropping the signal-caller. So, as was predictable, Frerotte was never (or very rarely) able to have a comfortable pocket from which to throw. However, unlike Garcia, Gus could not escape the pressure and was instead sacked five times and threw for just 138 yards mainly due to his accostment by blitzing Bucs.
Thus, at least to me, Sunday's game illustrates how wane the Vikings' hopes are that Gus Frerotte will lead them to the promised land anytime soon (and, let's face it, he isn't getting younger). If the conditions are perfect, Gus can throw for 200-300 yards and his excellent at getting the ball downfield. However, if a pocket is not created for him, he is about as mobile as a glacier.
So, with the Vikings now at 5-5, they are currently in a tie for first place in the NFC North with the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. My next post will examine all three of those teams' final six games in hopes of determining which one will take the one playoff spot coming from (although likely not deserved) the division.
Comments
Zach,
I would typically agree with your analysis here, however I do have one exception to it. I watched the game via espn gamecast and if my gamecast stats serve my memory correctly, each time the Purple were making progress a certain QB (that I am rather partial to, I might ad) would make a mistake, miss a simple pass attempt or god forbid THROW A PICK! When the Purple were driving that last drive of the game and all cylinders were clicking and it was also obvious the TB defense was getting tired, all of a sudden, Interception! Nothing kills a drive faster and within the last 2 min, game over! Thanks for your thoughts as well.....